CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten eviscerated President Biden’s recent claim that he could have won re-election if he had stayed in the 2024 race.
After President-elect Trump’s resounding victory in November, many Democrats have been offering theories about what could have been done differently and Biden is no exception.
When asked in a USA Today interview this week if he would have won had he not dropped out on July 21, Biden replied, “It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes.” USA Today summarized that he continued by “adding he based that view on polling he had reviewed.”
Enten, however, said Biden’s claims were nonsense.
“Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden’s statement that he could have beaten Trump as ‘flat out bonkers,’” he wrote in a Wednesday X post. “Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won.”
In the video he posted along with the tweet, Enten elaborated, “Why do I say that his statement is flat-out bonkers that he could have won the 2024 election if he had stayed in the race? Just take a look here.”
He then showed the polling numbers from around the time Biden dropped out of the race, particularly in the Great Lake battleground states, where it was “Donald Trump ahead in all 3.”
After showing similar advantages in other major regions, he elaborated, “But it’s not just that Trump was ahead, he was ahead by a lot in these key battleground states.”
“My goodness gracious,” he said as he marveled at Trump’s leads at the time, then widened the scope of the analysis.
“So let’s look at the entire 2024 campaign, ‘Days Biden led Trump in 2024, when Biden was still in the race,’” he said as he pointed to a gigantic 0 on the screen. “Get this. Zero! Nada! No days! No days was Biden ahead of Donald Trump.”
After showing there is no record of incumbents winning with a negative approval rating, Enten summarized his findings.
“The bottom line is this: Joe Biden was behind, he had always been behind and he most likely would have stayed behind,” the data expert said.
